The collapse of a crucial network of Atlantic Ocean currents could push parts of the world into a deep freeze, with winter temperatures plunging to around minus 55 degrees Fahrenheit in some cities, bringing "profound climate and societal impacts," according to a new study.
There is increasing concern about the future of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation — known as the AMOC — a system of currents that works like a giant conveyor belt, pulling warm water from the Southern Hemisphere and tropics to the Northern Hemisphere, where it cools, sinks and flows back south.
Multiple studies suggest the AMOC is weakening with some projecting it could even collapse this century as global warming disrupts the balance of heat and salinity that keeps it moving. This would usher in huge global weather and climate shifts — including plunging temperatures in Europe, which relies on the AMOC for its mild climate.
What's less clear, however, is how these impacts will unfold in a world heated up by humans burning fossil fuels.
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📷: Kerem Yücel/AFP/Getty Images
Ocean governance reforms now carry direct consequences for sustainable construction and environmental sustainability in construction. The UN High Seas Treaty and proposed protections for the Antarctic Peninsula introduce stricter environmental impact assessments for offshore and coastal developments, signalling an era of detailed whole life carbon assessment in marine-related infrastructure. Developers of subsea cables, interconnectors, and CO₂ pipelines will contend with extended consenting processes and biodiversity restrictions that influence material selection, eco-friendly construction practices, and low carbon design decisions across multiple jurisdictions. The evolution of marine spatial planning aligns with circular economy in construction principles, recognising supply-chain carbon exposure as both a design and compliance issue.
Trade policy disruption poses further challenges to sustainable building design. Prospective tariffs on low-carbon materials—such as green building materials, steel, engineered timber, and heat-pump components—threaten project timelines and budgets. Anticipated responses include regional procurement strategies, adoption of sustainable material specification, and more rigorous evaluation of embodied carbon in materials and life cycle cost performance. Demands for verifiable environmental product declarations (EPDs) and building lifecycle performance metrics are expected to rise as clients seek transparency for carbon neutral construction targets.
Climate volatility is reshaping low-impact construction strategies, particularly in flood-prone and mountainous regions. Designers must adopt adaptive lifecycle assessment frameworks that prioritise redundancy, attenuation, and slope stability. These approaches support net zero whole life carbon goals and reduce the carbon footprint of construction, reinforcing resilience and resource efficiency in construction.
The policy debate on decarbonisation is shifting toward measurable outcomes. Governments are preparing performance-linked procurement and finance mechanisms that embed whole life carbon benchmarks into material supply chains. The accelerating move toward net zero carbon buildings, green construction, and BREEAM V7 standards signals the transition from intent to implementation. Markets for low embodied carbon materials and circular construction strategies are scaling at pace, defining a new baseline for sustainable building practices and comprehensive whole life carbon accountability across the global built environment.
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