Rising global temperatures are set to devastate food crops across the world, with particularly alarming impacts projected for the United States, where production of key crops could plummet 50% by the end of the century, according to a sweeping new analysis.
Of the many impacts of the fossil fuel-driven climate crisis, damage to the global food system is one of the most terrifying. But the overall impact of climate change on crops — and how much it can be offset by farmers' adaptations — has been hard to establish and hotly debated.
The new analysis, eight years in the making, is "the first attempt to really tackle both of those problems," said Solomon Hsiang, a study author and professor of global environmental policy at the Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability.
The scientists also measured how real-world farmers are adapting to climate change, from changing crop varieties to adjusting irrigation, to calculate the overall impact of global warming.
Their findings are stark. Every 1 degree Celsius the world warms above pre-industrial levels will drag down global food production by an average of 120 calories per person per day, according to the study, published Wednesday in Nature.
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📸: Charlie Riedel/AP; Ricky Carioti/The Washington Post/Getty Images
The UK’s sustainable construction agenda is shifting from headline innovation to delivery at scale, with retrofit, electrified heat and climate resilience now central to decarbonising the built environment. The National Retrofit Hub’s call for a stronger retrofit system highlights a persistent gap between ambition and implementation: reliable skills, coherent standards, trusted advice and financeable programmes are still needed to cut the carbon footprint of construction across existing building stock.
Retrofit strategies must be judged through whole life carbon assessment, embodied carbon, life cycle cost and lifecycle assessment, rather than short-term capital spend alone. Sustainable building design now depends on building lifecycle performance, low carbon design and sustainable material specification, including environmental product declarations (EPDs), low embodied carbon materials and greater resource efficiency in construction.
Nesta’s analysis that electricity bills are rising more slowly than gas strengthens the case for heat pumps, electrified building services and energy-efficient buildings. If the price gap continues, low carbon building upgrades will become easier to justify through household running costs as well as carbon footprint reduction. Net zero carbon buildings and net zero whole life carbon outcomes will rely on this practical alignment between policy, affordability and performance.
Climate adaptation is becoming part of environmental sustainability in construction. Planting, shading, passive cooling, ventilation and green infrastructure are now essential components of sustainable design and eco-design for buildings, not optional enhancements. The sector’s response to hotter summers must avoid locking in high-energy cooling demand and instead prioritise resilient, low-impact construction.
For commercial property owners, the next phase of ESOS must turn audits into investable decarbonisation plans. BREEAM, BREEAM v7, circular economy principles and circular construction strategies can help move projects from compliance to measurable performance. Sustainable building practices, end-of-life reuse in construction and circular economy in construction will define whether green construction becomes a scalable operating model or remains a collection of isolated initiatives.
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