Mount Tambora changed the world. In 1815, the Indonesian volcano exploded in the most powerful eruption in recorded history, sending an enormous plume of tiny sun-reflecting particles high into the atmosphere, cooling the planet and ushering in disaster.
What followed was called the "year without a summer:" global temperatures plunged, crops failed, people starved, a cholera pandemic spread and tens of thousands died. Some even credit the volcano with inspiring Mary Shelley to write Frankenstein, while sheltering from unusually cold weather in Switzerland in 1816.
Many volcanoes have erupted since, but Tambora remains the planet's most recent massive eruption. More than 200 years later, scientists warn the world may be due another.
The question is not if, but when, said Markus Stoffel, a climate professor at the University of Geneva. Geological evidence suggests a 1-in-6 chance of a massive eruption this century, he told CNN.
The next massive eruption will "cause climate chaos," Stoffel said. "Humanity does not have any plan."
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📷: John Moore/Getty Images
Ocean governance reforms now carry direct consequences for sustainable construction and environmental sustainability in construction. The UN High Seas Treaty and proposed protections for the Antarctic Peninsula introduce stricter environmental impact assessments for offshore and coastal developments, signalling an era of detailed whole life carbon assessment in marine-related infrastructure. Developers of subsea cables, interconnectors, and CO₂ pipelines will contend with extended consenting processes and biodiversity restrictions that influence material selection, eco-friendly construction practices, and low carbon design decisions across multiple jurisdictions. The evolution of marine spatial planning aligns with circular economy in construction principles, recognising supply-chain carbon exposure as both a design and compliance issue.
Trade policy disruption poses further challenges to sustainable building design. Prospective tariffs on low-carbon materials—such as green building materials, steel, engineered timber, and heat-pump components—threaten project timelines and budgets. Anticipated responses include regional procurement strategies, adoption of sustainable material specification, and more rigorous evaluation of embodied carbon in materials and life cycle cost performance. Demands for verifiable environmental product declarations (EPDs) and building lifecycle performance metrics are expected to rise as clients seek transparency for carbon neutral construction targets.
Climate volatility is reshaping low-impact construction strategies, particularly in flood-prone and mountainous regions. Designers must adopt adaptive lifecycle assessment frameworks that prioritise redundancy, attenuation, and slope stability. These approaches support net zero whole life carbon goals and reduce the carbon footprint of construction, reinforcing resilience and resource efficiency in construction.
The policy debate on decarbonisation is shifting toward measurable outcomes. Governments are preparing performance-linked procurement and finance mechanisms that embed whole life carbon benchmarks into material supply chains. The accelerating move toward net zero carbon buildings, green construction, and BREEAM V7 standards signals the transition from intent to implementation. Markets for low embodied carbon materials and circular construction strategies are scaling at pace, defining a new baseline for sustainable building practices and comprehensive whole life carbon accountability across the global built environment.
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