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In January 2025, as the LA wildfires raged, people placed bets on Polymarket, one of the leading prediction market platforms. They waged money on how how many acres the fires would consume, which locations the flames would reach and when they would be contained.
Polymarket is part of a booming, multibillion-dollar industry, which allows people to bet on the outcome of almost any future event, from the results of football games and elections, to the number of social media posts Elon Musk makes.
Some prediction markets also allow people to bet on wildfires, as well as other climate change-fueled extreme weather events, and experts are sounding the alarm. They fear it risks incentivizing arson and, more generally, that it will distance people from the suffering fires bring.
Polymarket says its platform is a valuable source of information during disasters. “People turn to the news for commentary and they come to Polymarket for information,” a spokesperson said. “While we are not blind to the risks, removing these markets does not prevent a tragedy but makes the most accurate information less accessible to the people who need it most.
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📸 : Apu Gomes/Getty Images
